Florida's Gerrymander Could be Struck Down, but Maybe not Entirely.

How Florida's latest Congressional map could be ruled as a violation of section ll of the Voting Rights Act, leading to the resurrection of a north Florida minority district.

Florida is perhaps the biggest exemplification of a swing state that has bolted to the right in recent years. While the nation as a whole swung against Donald Trump in 2020, Florida trended conservative, voting for Trump by over a 3-point margin. In 2022, Florida defied the nationwide backlash against the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, voting for Ron DeSantis by an astounding 20 points after he signed an abortion ban. This shift has created a false mandate among state officials, empowering them to ruthlessly gerrymander Florida.

Florida’s Intense Redistricting Cycle

In 2021, Governor Ron DeSantis jumped at the opportunity to gerrymander the state and cement Republican power. Despite state lawmakers passing a bipartisan redistricting plan, Governor Desantis vetoed it, using his political capital to demand a Republican Congressional gerrymander. Unlike the bipartisan map, Governor DeSantis’ proposed map was a brutal partisan and racial gerrymander, dismantling majority-minority districts that were solidly democratic.

After immense pressure, the Republican-led legislature passed Governor Desantis’ map. Unlike the old fair Congressional lines, this new map created a 20-8 advantage for Republicans. See below the photo from 538:

In this map, a previous Black opportunity seat in Jacksonville and Tallahassee was dismantled. Moreover, partisan decisions were made to eliminate Democratic seats around Orlando, Tampa, and Miami.

There are clear alternatives to this map as well, the most obvious being the bipartisan plan that initially passed the state legislature. However, to illustrate how easy it is to create a fair map, here’s an example I made in 30 minutes using Davesredistricting:

In this map, Republicans have an advantage in 15 districts while Democrats have an advantage in 13, which makes sense considering the state’s Republican tilt. Additionally, there are a host of competitive districts around the Tampa, Orlando, and Miami areas that give both parties great opportunities to pick up seats. The most important aspect of this map is the resurrection of a Black opportunity seat in Northern Florida, which will uphold section ll of the Voting Rights Act and allow Black Americans to select a representative of their choice.

Current Litigation and the Path Forward

Right now, the state and plaintiffs have reached an agreement in a court battle against the map. Plaintiffs have agreed to drop their claims against the Tampa and Orlando sections of the map to focus on the dismantled Black opportunity seat, which the state now acknowledges its role in. With Florida’s state constitution prohibiting gerrymandering and section ll of the Voting Rights Act preventing the dismantling of minority seats, the current northern configuration of the map may be struck down. If this occurs, the state would be forced to restore a Black opportunity seat in Jacksonville and Tallahassee, restoring critical minority representation that was diluted through gerrymandering. The odds of this happening are quite significant, not only because of these recent court developments but also due to the Supreme Court’s ruling in Allen v. Milligan that upheld section ll of the Voting Rights Act

While this would not be the perfect outcome, it’s a win nonetheless. Though the partisan gerrymander would likely remain, the parts of the map that obstruct minority representation would be struck down. Perfect shouldn’t be the enemy of the good, but it’s our responsibility as a society to strive for perfection in the long term. This means continuing community advocacy to eliminate partisan gerrymandering, one state at a time.